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The end of summer draws upon us, bringing with it the return of the fall season. Once again we’ll swear television has reached new highs or new lows. We’ll applaud the eagerly anticipated debuts and returns, be disappointed by the filler, and look on with disbelief at the zombies that no one has yet put down.

We’ll speculate, eviscerate, and gossip, thus continuing the tradition of fall television chatter. And there’s no chatter more traditional than complaining about the Nielsen ratings. It’s practically time-honored. We’ve all done it. If there are three villains in the minds of viewers and fans, the Nielsens have got to be in the top two or three, right behind network execs and about equal with those-morons-who-watch-crap-instead-of-good-television.

We’ve all seen it enough to know it by heart. Recite with me, now:

• Their methodology is suspect or completely bogus

• Too much emphasis is put on them

• There are infinitely better ways to track viewer numbers

And you know as well as I do that each and every one of these criticisms tend to be prefaced with, “any idiot can see….”. And you know, they’re convincing arguments; it often does seem obvious. It really doesn’t matter, though. Criticisms of the ratings are nothing new; nearly 20 years ago, NOVA suggested that network executives would have better luck going with their gut than trying to base decisions of ratings…and it wasn’t a particularly novel conclusion.

Even if the Nielsen’s have been unjustly maligned, the existence of these doubts would presumably lead networks and advertisers to look for alternatives, but that’s not exactly happened. So the question before us is not whether the Nielsen ratings system should be scrapped, but why it hasn’t been.

The main players in this farce are the networks, the advertisers, and of course, Nielsen Media Research (NMR).

The networks want to sell advertising spots to their advertisers. The advertisers want to know that they are getting their money’s worth and that their products are being hawked to those who might actually buy them. NMR wants to stay in business and presumably keep the first two reliant on them alone for those all important numbers. Whenever NMR tries to change things up, the networks are unhappy when their cash-cows are suddenly undermined. Whenever the networks challenge the system, as they are now, NMR accuses them of trying to create a cabal to rig the ratings. The result: nothing ever really changes.

But call me cynical, but I’m not sure we should really want them to. One of the more recent criticisms of NMR centers around their decision to not weigh online viewing (either on PCs or mobile devices) in their calculations, nor to update how they weigh DVR recordings. That does seem ridiculously stupid. But it should also make us rethink the whole proposition. Perfect numbers are no longer simply advertisers’ wet dreams; it’s becoming more and more technologically feasible that everything a viewer watches might be logged and added into a great stew of statistics. The advertisers would be thrilled. At this point, privacy concerns may seem like closing the barn door long after the horses are gone, but it’s still creepy.

Besides, I’m not quite ready to give up the kvetching about the ratings. They make far better villains than the morons next door, as we all have our guilty pleasures and can’t exactly point fingers. Murky ratings give fans something to speculate over and fight against. In a world with perfect ratings, there’d be little room for quirky fan campaigns to save their favorite shows.

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HEROES Season 4 debuted last night to dismal ratings.

6.27M people tuned in and 500k immediately tuned out before the 2nd hour started.  Which basically means that nearly 10% of America did what I wanted to do last night:  tune out.

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The top DVD in the world right now for the SCI-FI genre is TRUE BLOOD, and there is no denying that.  There is also no denying that Season 3 of HEROES is the 2nd most popular SCI-FI series on DVD right now.  However, coming in at number 3 is SUPERNATURAL which is having a better year in DVD than anything on The CW.

That’s right the brothers Winchester have outsold Clark Kent.  They’ve outsold FRINGE (massively).  They’ve done the unthinkable in my mind.  I was thinking they’d get a small spike in DVD sales, but the show has seen a large spike, while SMALLVILLE saw a dip.  SMALLVILLE has always been worth 500k in DVDs per year, and it looks like just over 400k might be its peak point.  SUPERNATURAL on the other hand may just hit 450k in sales.

Lets look at The CW and their prized possessions:  GOSSIP GIRL and ONE TREE HILL.  OTH is outselling GG and is likely to hit 200k units moved, while GG will be lucky to get to 190k.  SUPERNATURAL sold more in its first week than OTH and GG are estimated to sell this year.  Even when the holiday sales numbers spike their sales, SUPERNATURAL will be gliding towards 450k, while the other two shows are hopeful for 200k.

When you look at the Blu-Ray sales things are a little different.  SMALLVILLE looks likely to hit around 50k units sold by years end, while SUPERNATURAL is going to be lucky to hit 35k units sold.  Compare that to DOLLHOUSE which is going to be lucky to hit 125k in DVD, but is looking like it will hit 25k in Blu-Ray.

So SUPERNATURAL is a hit on DVD, pulling ok numbers in Blu-Ray, and entirely kicking the ass of The CW’s “favorite shows,” and that my friends is just another mark against Ostroff.  At this year’s major events to kick off the new season there were tons of “talent,” from GG, OTH, 90210, MELROSE PLACE, and THE BEAUTIFUL LIFE.  SUPERNATURAL wasn’t even present.  The big marketing push nationally once again left the Winchester boys behind.

The Late Great Kim Manners Giving Jensen Direction

What is sad is the fact that it’s one of the best shows ever on TV.  For the genre it may well be the best show of its type of all time.  It has none of the downward trending that THE X-FILES had.  It’s coherent and the mythology is always forward moving (unlike FRINGE or even LOST).  Sure, it’s on The Can’t Win Network, so it has trouble getting exposure.

However, in my mind if you flipped FRINGE and SUPERNATURAL to the other network we’d probably see the same overall type of numbers, except I believe FRINGE would do slightly worse on The CW, and SUPERNATURAL would do slightly better on FOX.  Plus on FOX the show would be a hit, and the talent would be paraded around.  Ok, maybe they’re glad they aren’t on FOX.

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The short answer?

No.  Wait I hear, it only had a small drop in viewers (7.98M) and only had a small drop in the 18-49 demo at 2.9, neither of which were series lows.  So why am I thinking it wasn’t a success?

It was the season premiere, and it lost viewers from the season finale.  It was only 1.3M people and around half a point in the demo.  That isn’t too bad.  Well it’s not too bad when you consider it followed BONES and not AMERICAN IDOL.  However BONES had 2.1M more viewers and .1 more in the demo (BONES has always schewed older than other FOX programming), and FRINGE was only up against THE OFFICE and SUPERNATURAL in terms of new content.  What happens when CSI and GRAY’S ANATOMY come back next week?

Well I hear the argument of “Nick, they don’t really share viewers…”  hmmm… that may be true but we’ll find out next week.  Of course we may see a drop in viewers because the premiere was so awful.  It is a mystery show that likes to take 1 step forward and 2 steps back, but the premiere was like running back a couple hundred yards from the finale.  Is that what fans waited all summer for?  Really?

This was a gamble for FOX, and I’m not convinced it was a good decision.  It was always a ballsy decision, and with the success FOX has every night of the week (except Friday) they can certainly gamble and try and get good numbers from a full Thursday lineup.  FRINGE fans need not worry, if it isn’t working out it will get moved back to its cushy time slot.

The Can’t Win Network (The CW) is running out of options.

MELROSE PLACE?  Dawn Ostroff was convinced bringing it back would bring back many of the 90210 fans who gave up quickly last season on 90210 when they went back to memory lane for a look at an updated Melrose.  Nope.  90210 isn’t looking good and MELROSE PLACE is a ratings failure.

THE BEAUTIFUL LIFE?  Dawn Ostroff was convinced putting a soap opera about models behind ANTM was a no brainer.  People who saw the pilot were convinced anyone who picked up the poorly written and acted show were in need of a trip to the wizard.  The viewing public appeared to have agreed as the show opened up to horrible numbers including a dismal 0.7 in the 18-49 demo.  Can you say canceled?

THE VAMPIRE DIARIES? It saw a drop of around 25% in its second week, but remains the top show on The CW.  The fact is though that if it continues to lose viewers it may level off at SUPERNATURAL numbers … which is still better than anything else The CW has (although GOSSIP GIRL had its best numbers in almost 11 months this past week against repeats), but lets face it, it’s not enough to save the network that continues to lose money.

The facts are this:  Things are only going to get worse.  This coming week will have everyone’s favorite shows returning and shows they can’t wait to check out debuting.  The CW was successful last year in debuting early compared to everyone else, but they delayed it a week this season.  So instead of having some viewers make a commitment to a new show, they’re likely to tune into their old favorites this week.  This means GOSSIP GIRL will likely have a less successful night tomorrow, and VAMPIRE DIARIES will be up against a full lineup.

The only real success seems to be SUPERNATURAL which held up better than I thought it would up against FRINGE, holding on to numbers similar to its worst of last season.  I figured that matchup would cause more trouble for SUPERNATURAL than it did.

So now the question is… How long does Dawn last?  Will Moonves make the cut before Winter, During Winter, During Spring or never?  My bet is during winter, but it could be coming rather quickly.

After all it’s deserving.

90210 was a surprise hit last year pulling in huge viewing numbers for the CW.  Then a couple weeks passed by and the people who wanted a 90210 stopped tuning in.  Despite that Dawn Ostroff decided to bet on a relaunch of MELROSE PLACE the old “sister,” show of 90210.  Every person with an IQ over 70 in Hollywood scratched their heads in disbelief.  The show is a massive failure and was beaten last night by WAREHOUSE 13 on SyFy (pronounced see-fee) last night and heck, SyFy even made a point of it in a press release.

Still Dawn is still riding high on her decision to replace SMALLVILLE with THE VAMPIRE DIARIES.  That show has been the largest hit ever for The CW.  Still right now picking a vampire show wasn’t a tough decision.  THE BEAUTIFUL LIFE and whatever the hell they’re calling that one show now about a girl who finds her birth parents, are still waiting to be judged by the public.  The top show in terms of quality from the pilots last season for The Can’t Win Network was BODY POLITIC and right now we can see one bad move by Dawn and can only wait and see how the other shows work out. Throw in the wait on seeing if SMALLVILLE can be a success on Friday and we’re all left wondering if VAMPIRE DIARIES is the only thing for The CW to be happy about.